People around the office have accused me and my fellow economists of being a tad too gloomy. Never mind that manufacturing output continues to decline, the homebuilding sector continues to flounder, major companies are declaring bankruptcy or laying off workers, and…well you get the picture. When times are bad, we have an obligation not to sugarcoat things and try to provide guidance on where the economy's headed; however, I don't think I'd be making these kinds of predictions.

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