However, the big difference between then and now is that conditions were much worse back in 2001, as the economy was clearly in recession following the dot-com bust and the aftermath of 9/11. By contrast, despite a plethora of opinions that the U.S. is (or isn’t) in recession, no one—including the Federal Reserve—really knows, and enough evidence to point us one way or the other won’t be available for a while. Even this morning’s weak employment data, which indicated a net loss of 17,000 jobs during January, are a preliminary snapshot of the labor market and may tell an entirely different story in a couple of months after revisions are included. Also, positive readings on capital spending and the ISM index were released this week, so the news is not all glum.