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  • Time to Relax

    Since I am in long-weekend mode already, and don't want to interrupt the reverie by pointing out that firm signs of economic recovery remain elusive, I thought I'd direct readers to some interesting takes on two important policy issues: cap-and-trade and health care. On the health care debate...

  • No Help Wanted

    A new research note by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco explores the likelihood of yet another jobless recovery. The authors note that the relatively low level of temp worker layoffs and high share of involuntary part-time workers (often referred to as underemployment) at this...
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  • The Bottomless Pit

    Every month we think we're getting closer to the bottom of the housing market and when the data come out we inevitably hear the same thing: "We're almost there". Well guess what? Another month's worth of data on existing and new home sales and still no evidence the carnage has ended...
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  • Ouch, My Aching Greenback

    A warning by Standard & Poor's about the possibility of a credit rating downgrade for the U.K. sent a shockwave across global bond and equity markets. With the U.K. government spending and printing large sums of money to resurrect the economy, analysts are expressing fears about the rapid accumulation...
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  • O Recovery, Where Art Thou?

    Perceptions of the economy change quickly. Only a couple of weeks ago it seemed nearly everyone was spotting 'green shoots' of recovery all over the place. After receiving sobering reports this week on retail sales , unemployment insurance claims and industrial production , hopes of an imminent...
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  • Green Shoots of Recovery or Just More Weeds?

    Whether it's the arrival of spring or people growing tired of all the bad economic news, everyone seems to be getting out their microscopes and scrutinizing every single data release all in the hopes of spotting the end of the recession - hence all the talk of green shoots . A point I've made...
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  • What Caused the Recession Again?

    Conventional wisdom has pretty much established the idea that the housing market crash pushed the U.S. economy into a mild recession at the end of 2007, which then snowballed into what is now one of the deepest recessions in the post-WWII era. However, what if that view turns out to be wrong? In a recent...
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  • A Tough Job

    People around the office have accused me and my fellow economists of being a tad too gloomy. Never mind that manufacturing output continues to decline, the homebuilding sector continues to flounder, major companies are declaring bankruptcy or laying off workers, and...well you get the picture. When times...
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  • Taking Inventory

    With a light week of data releases on tap and no apparent end to bailouts in sight, now is the time to look at under-the-radar indicators that might shed some light on where the economy is headed. Take inventories, for example. As a recession deepens, stockpiled inventories become a widespread problem...
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  • Are We There Yet?

    Identifying turning points in the economy is crucial for economists. Since producers can't make operational decisions in a vacuum, they rely on economic data to help determine whether they should increase production, deploy new capital and/or hire workers. At the earliest stages of a recovery (or...
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